Friday, 31 July 2020

Covid-19: Some inconvenient truths

All figures taken from https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus Please note page is updated daily. The figures below are from June 21 but there have been no significant changes since.

Ontario population ~ 15 million

Number of tests: 1.17 million

Number of cases: 33,000 -> 2.86 % infection rate, or 97% of us DON'T HAVE THE BUG

Number of deaths: 2606 -> 2606/33k = 7.5% mortality rate

Your chance of death = infection rate x mortality rate = 0.22%

Your chance of NOT DYING FROM THIS BUG = 100 - .22 = 99.78%

But the news gets better

Of the 2606 who died, 1650 were in nursing homes. They represented 5335 total cases.

IF YOU ARE NOT IN A NURSING HOME:

950 deaths out of 28,000 cases = 3.3% mortality if you get the bug

950 deaths out of 1.17 million tests = .00082, or you have a 99.99% chance of living through this if you're not currently infected.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Spot on. I've monitored the Virginia Covit-19 website since this started. The deaths of old folks and the infirmed in long-term care facilities have constituted 52%-to-62% of the deaths. So ... lock down the state because people in long-term care facilities are dying. That's where old folks go to die. The website reports that there have been up to 5,400 empty hospital beds available since this started. Also, the site reports that up to 21% of respirators are on standby unused.

No one we know nor anyone our friends know have been infected or died from Covit-19. Where is the pandemic?

I ran across an article in the Smithsonian magazine I subscribe to. There was a flu epidemic in 1957. 116,000 thousand people in the USA died. 160,000 in the USA have allegedly died to date from Covit-19. The problem is that the population has increased by 3X in that time. As an order of magnitude, if Covit-19 was as serious as the flu epidemic in 1957, 348,000 would have died. However, in 1957 there was no lockdown. Indeed, it was not even worthy of mention in the MSM. What is going on here?

Nikolai Vladivostok said...

Even a 3.3% mortality rate seems very high. The last two global estimates I heard were 0.56% and 0.26%.
Perhaps in Ontario, nursing home residents were more likely to contract the disease than the general population, as well as more likely to die from it.

Chumlee's brother said...




Best make everyone wear masks then.

Serves two purposes.

1. They'll feel like there is a pandemic because everyone around them is wearing a mask
( including themselves) .
2. They'll come to realise that ALL rights and freedoms come from government.

JoeG said...

Using the estimated number of cases by extrapolating from the confirmed cases:
Number of tests: 1.17 million
Number of confirmed cases: 33,000 -> 2.86 % infection rate (33,000/1.17 million)
Ontario population ~ 15 million
Estimated total number of cases: 15 million x 2.86% = 429,000
Number of deaths: 2606 -> 2606/429k = 0.6% mortality rate
Your chance of death = infection rate x mortality rate = 0.02%

Armoric said...

" 97% of us DON'T HAVE THE BUG "

I heard the theory that only vulnerable people should have been locked down, so that the virus would have quickly spread among healthy people and herd immunity would have been sooner achieved, allowing vulnerable people to sooner come out of hiding.

But the coronavirus epidemic is over in Canada, and I'm not sure it can be said that herd immunity has been achieved if only 3% of the population got the bug.

Maybe some people are predisposed to catch the virus, while others are not, and you can say there is herd immunity when most people with that predisposition have caught the bug.

I think the virus was not deadly enough to justify a general lockdown, but on the other hand, I'm suspicious of the theory that it's better to let healthy people catch the virus. In fact, I heard a specialist say that you can protect vulnerable people from the virus, but you can't hasten the end of an epidemic, and it's not really known why epidemics die down at some point.

John 14:6 said...

Funny how the homeless have somehow escaped the plague while living in the most unsanitary conditions.

If the plague were true, you would think that the homeless problem would now be solved.

Instead, they chose the elderly as their targets. Already on their death beds, many elderly easily succumbed to the plague that was purposefully introduced into their environment.

No inquiries made, no charges filed.

This is the thanks you can expect for struggling your whole life to pay a debt that you were born with that can never be repaid.

The only debt I have is to Jesus Christ. Jesus Christ forgives, antichrist does not.

This is freedom.

Luke 11:37 And as he spake, a certain Pharisee besought him to dine with him: and he went in, and sat down to meat.

38 And when the Pharisee saw it, he marveled that he had not first washed before dinner.

39 And the Lord said unto him, Now do ye Pharisees make clean the outside of the cup and the platter; but your inward part is full of ravening and wickedness.

40 Ye fools, did not he that made that which is without make that which is within also?

41 But rather give alms of such things as ye have; and, behold, all things are clean unto you.

42 But woe unto you, Pharisees! for ye tithe mint and rue and all manner of herbs, and pass over judgment and the love of God: these ought ye to have done, and not to leave the other undone.

43 Woe unto you, Pharisees! for ye love the uppermost seats in the synagogues, and greetings in the markets.

44 Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye are as graves which appear not, and the men that walk over them are not aware of them.

45 Then answered one of the lawyers, and said unto him, Master, thus saying thou reproachest us also.

46 And he said, Woe unto you also, ye lawyers! for ye lade men with burdens grievous to be borne, and ye yourselves touch not the burdens with one of your fingers.

ianrob said...

Anonymous Chumlee's brother said...



Best make everyone wear masks then.

Serves two purposes.

1. They'll feel like there is a pandemic because everyone around them is wearing a mask
( including themselves) .
2. They'll come to realise that ALL rights and freedoms come from government.

For once that's a good point Chumlee. More government control becomes accepted.

Anonymous said...

Armoric: "But the coronavirus epidemic is over in Canada, and I'm not sure it can be said that herd immunity has been achieved if only 3% of the population got the bug."
The virus has been around for a year now, so you can safely assume that everyone has been exposed to it by now. At this point, the infection/death rates should be counted against the entire population size, not the number of tests (some of which could be the same people, tested multiple times).
33,000 infections out of 15,000,000 = 0.22% infection rate
2,606 deaths out of 15,000,000 = .017% death rate
But hey, everyone got to pretend they were in a real-life zombie apocalypse movie, so there was that.

Chumlee's brother said...

ianrob said...

Anonymous Chumlee's brother said...



Best make everyone wear masks then.

Serves two purposes.

1. They'll feel like there is a pandemic because everyone around them is wearing a mask
( including themselves) .
2. They'll come to realise that ALL rights and freedoms come from government.

For once that's a good point Chumlee. More government control becomes accepted.

...You never know. The public may make the quantum leap that in reality, ALL freedoms come from the barrel of a gun.

Phil said...

That is a correct assessment.

Anonymous said...

I hope it's not a problem, but I used this for a post I made using the Quebec numbers since I live in Montreal. People really need to start being better informed of the facts and stop listening to the lamestream media.

PB said...

"Instead, they chose the elderly as their targets. Already on their death beds, many elderly easily succumbed to the plague that was purposefully introduced into their environment."

I think you have it there. That seems to be the case where I am. Funny how over the past years there has been a background ramping up of hostility towards older people (OK Boomer, Karen etc.). Seems well timed as it turns out.

The Baron said...

Saying 97% haven't got the bug is an excuse for indefinite lockdown. It implies a large susceptible population. I don't trust any of these numbers. I can scarcely even be bothered explaining why not.


Baroness Lawrence said...

Paki causes mayhem in a hospital invoking a cop response.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8584003/Footage-shows-police-violently-dragging-grieving-father-dying-six-year-old-daughter.html?ito=push-notification&ci=26073&si=10973119

Media deliberately whipping up reports in attempt to create a chimp out me thinks

Anonymous said...

As I've mentioned before, the slave trade was a Jewish slave trade. And this slave trade would kill two birds with one stone. It would make Jews very rich and when the time was right, they'd unleash them upon the European origin population. That time has now arrived.

The Jew plans well in advance. In fact, they've been planning this, certainly for the last 700 years and probably since their inception.

So they want to kill old people and again it will kill two birds with one stone, well three. Firstly you remove the teachers from society and therefore easier to brainwash and indoctrinate the younger generations. Secondly, you kill off people in your depopulation agenda. And thirdly, no old people, no pensions. Having stolen people's hard earned labour, all their lives, the Jews now want what little they have left for themselves.

The Jew controls society. This nightmare certainly stems from the lie of the holocaust, which through constant promotion, has given Jews complete protection in the west. The madness of this all has meant that the enemy of the Jew (the non Jew) is now the enemy of the non Jew. Yes, non Jews are now killing their own, for the Jew, because of the lies of the Jews. And it's this very reasons that all social media sites are INSTANTLY deleting all topics on Jew, Judaism, Zionism etc. If you go onto any online forum, the minute you write Jew, your post is suspect. Any mention of Hitler, Holocaust, six million, goyim and anything related to Jews, there's a 99% chance your post will be deleted. They have complete control of the msm and now, most online forums.
Their game is to just keep deleting public opinion, in the hope that the lies they let through will brainwash the public into believing them.

They have removed all logical discourse from everything. All that was no longer is. Academia are indoctrination and brainwashing institutions. The same for the msm, the film and music industries. It's now in sports (not that I care for them), of late Port Vale's Tom Pope was given a six match ban and fined for anti semitic remarks. His crime? Upon being asked by a fan, on Twitter, I believe; "how will world war three play out"? He stated what most of us here know: "There will be a war with Iran, Russia and China. The world will be in chaos, bringing in a world government and the Rothschilds will control all the banks." For his mention of the Rothschilds, he was fined and suspended. And people still haven't cottoned onto just why NO ONE in the msm writes anything about the Rothschilds. They have no idea of their power, but they do know that writing anything will end up them being sacked and instantly blacklisted from journalism.

The gaming industry is now in on it. People are now policing themselves, as Sir Bertrand Russell wrote about in his collection of speeches and essays, compiled into book form in 1952 called 'The Impact of Science on Society'.

And they've got away with it, because they've done what people believe is not possible - everyone is in on it. Yes, the people are completely unable to understand that all institutions, public organisations, police forces, judiciary, armed forces, msm etc ARE ALL controlled. They have no idea that an underground control of freemasons is doing all of this. When you tell them about this they laugh at you. They don't understand that there are those controlling everything and with the virus, through constant propaganda, people actually believe it's real - read 'The Emperor's New Clothes' by Hans Christian Andersen (incidentally played by Jew Danny Kaye in the 1952 movie).

'All the bases are loaded' to borrow from baseball. Victory is very nearly at hand for them. And I state this because people not only believe in the lies but as already said, they're beginning to police themselves. It's just like Stasi controlled Germany.

Harbinger

AnonA said...

With the Covid19 crisis, as with the LGBTI narrative, if you fail to openly acknowledge their lies as truth, you will be severely punished.

Deny the virus and get arrested. Deny the LGBTI narrative and you will lose your job.

In the short term, going along to get along appears to work but sooner or later you they will force you to cross your own personal red line. I believe that is why there are so many inconsistencies in their narratives. They are are always probing for that red line to provoke a backlash.

Rogue said...

I ditto that Ianrob. Chumlee has made a good point there.

Not his usual thing, to be sure, but quite apt in this instance.

Rapparee said...

Here in Melbournegrad they've ratcheted up the holocough diagnosed cases to between 200-700 statewide per day, mostly clusters around Melbourne which has, by far the highest recorded numbers of the nation.

Few reported alleged covid deaths per day, mainly elderly. Over about six months approx only 200 attributed deaths for all of Australia.

The Victorian State Government and the lugenpresse have gone apocalyptic, spewing fear-porn non-stop.

Mandatory masks for a week now, and level 4 restrictions have just been declared today.

Limited to travel only five kilometers from home. Curfew between 8pm - 5am. Heavy fines imposed for infringements, talk of jailing quarantine breakers.

Victoria is considered a pox by the other states and Victorians are banned from interstate travel, or only with special permits and 14 day self-quarantining. Has been that way for a few months now.

It irks me so, as I had finally found a property in southern Queensland that I was really keen on. Had I been able, I would have flown up to inspect and most likely have purchased it. It was sold within a short time and I am left wondering as to whether I just should have thrown caution to the wind and made an offer without personally inspecting first. Have seriously been wanting to move out of city for a number of years, and am now kicking myself that I didn't do so sooner.



muh fuh said...


A little off topic but important; look at this fucking ape:

http://www.renegadetribune.com/detroit-20-yr-old-black-supremacist-films-himself-beating-up-elderly-nursing-home-patients/

Californian said...

You have to look at the COVID lockdown in light of the bigger picture: the mass third worlder migrations, the #meToo tantrums, the Greta Thunberg "how-dare-you-a-thon", the BLM toyi-toying, the iconoclasm, ad nauseam. These are a series of ultimately elite sponsored psychological warfare ops designed to disorient and demoralize traditional European and European-descended populations.

Then add the requirements to go about "masked" and with social distancing, thereby alienating them from normal human interactions. Throw in the uncertainty created by the closing of workplaces, schools and gyms. You end up with an increasingly atomized population.

Make no mistake about it, all this mayhem is part of a wider revolution from above, ala the Color Revolutions(tm) which we have seen sweepthe Arab world and eastern Europe not too long ago. The real issue is getting traditional groups to organize and take counter-action.

Stay tuned.

It ain't over yet.

The Baron said...

Anonymous Rapparee said...
Here in Melbournegrad they've ratcheted up the holocough diagnosed cases to between 200-700 statewide per day, mostly clusters around Melbourne which has, by far the highest recorded numbers of the nation.



Don't worry, once they've done it there they'll do a worse one somewhere else and you'll feel relatively free again. Superficially you are having a "New Zealand style lockdown" but in typical Australian fashion it is more authoritarian with more threats, fines, police brutality, etc.

Not in NZ, our mummy Jacinda only wanted to make us all better. (Barf)


These politicians seem to be competing on the world stage to do the best, safest, most caringest lockdown.


all this for a virus that the REAL SCIENCE shows we wouldn't have even noticed if we weren't told about it.

The Baron said...

The Jew plans well in advance. In fact, they've been planning this, certainly for the last 700 years and probably since their inception.

They've known Israel would be established in the year 1948 for at least that long.

How's that for planning? Then Hitler shows up just in time. Well done Hitler, here's your gold star. They'd have statues of Hitler in Tel Aviv except it would confuse normies and prompt tricky questions.

The Baron said...

I ran across an article in the Smithsonian magazine I subscribe to. There was a flu epidemic in 1957. 116,000 thousand people in the USA died. 160,000 in the USA have allegedly died to date from Covit-19. The problem is that the population has increased by 3X in that time. As an order of magnitude, if Covit-19 was as serious as the flu epidemic in 1957, 348,000 would have died. However, in 1957 there was no lockdown. Indeed, it was not even worthy of mention in the MSM. What is going on here?

World wide insanity is going on.