Tuesday, 8 January 2008

Independent my arse

My features creased into an unaccustomed smile over the weekend on reading the various ‘independent’ economists assure us that all is well. No, that’s not an iceberg we see ahead of us. Not at all.

The banks, brokers and auctioneering institutes are not in the business of giving free economic advice. Their business is to fleece us for every last cent they can get away with. So when these parasites raise their odoriferous armpits and release a swarm of advisors on us we should recoil like vampires before garlic. Their job is to talk up the market. Period.

So we get the likes of:

The fundamentals are sound”. Bollocks

The latest oil spike is caused by [insert here any convenient trouble spot or natural disaster] and prices will fall to $80 within a few months”. More bollocks. The only thing that will get oil down to that level will be a raging world-wide recession (can there be a ‘raging’ recession?), which is more and more likely.

The auctioneers confide in us that "house prices have fallen by 3% over the last year” but go on to reassure us that “the market appears to have bottomed out”. Absolute bollocks. House prices are off by over 20% and more - assuming you can find anyone to buy. If history is anything to go by, this property crisis will take a few years to pan out. Note – the Japanese economy has never recovered from their late 80s property bubble.

And circling ominously overhead, like a giant black vulture, are the sub-prime crisis and its related sub-crises. This will most definitely get worse. How bad is anyone’s guess.

So, dragged along, kicking and screaming by facts they can no longer ignore, the independents concede that economic growth this year “could fall to 3.7%”. I stand by the prediction I made six months ago when all these geniuses were forecasting growth of 5%+ for 2008. There will be no growth at all this year, or growth so low that it won't register.

Let’s wait and see who’s right. Savant or the ‘independents’


Anonymous said...

How can you 'raise' your armpit?

SAVANT said...

ok, ok OK