Don’t know if you ever look up these doomsday scenario websites that proliferate on the web. Don’t get me wrong, I think their basic premise is correct, that we, well the USA specifically, is/are headed for an economic apocalypse.
However I feel they’re wrong in relation to its suddenness. ‘The day the EBT cards don’t work’, ‘the day Social Security cheques don’t arrive’, ‘the day the dollar ceases to be a reserve currency’. It’s all about ‘the day’. But I can’t see that happening, not in America anyway. For the simple reason that the Fed can just keep printing dollars to pay the cheques and keep the EBT cards delivering. Needless to say, this will lead to an accelerated and ever-increasing decline in the dollar’s value.
This in turn will almost certainly lead eventually to the dollar losing its reserve currency status. But even here it’s not going to be an overnight thing. In my opinion, and maybe some of the finance wizards who adorn the comments section of this blog will correct me, but the status is not a binary on/off thing, rather something that will fall into disuse as the underlying currency is debased.
So maybe those of you stacking your cave in Montana with dried foods and gunpowder can take some time out for a bit of R&R.